National Forecast Chart
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WPC Top Stories:
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 21Z Mon Apr 11, 2022
Analyzed at 00Z Tue Apr 12, 2022
Analyzed at 03Z Tue Apr 12, 2022
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Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures NWT all in motion purple T-shirt size S:
Analyzed 21Z Tue Apr 12, 2022
Valid 06Z Wed Apr 13, 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 13, 2022
Valid 18Z Wed Apr 13, 2022
Valid 00Z Thu Apr 14, 2022
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 14, 2022
Valid 00Z Fri Apr 15, 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15, 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 16, 2022
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 17, 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 18, 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 19, 2022
+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 00Z Wed Apr 20 2022
General upper ridging north of Hawaii through the period should
keep easterly trade winds moderate to locally breezy over the next
week. This should result in some light showers favoring the
typical windward locations. A weak front north of Hawaii around
Friday-Saturday may first bring some enhanced moisture and precip
to the northernmost islands. After this, models are showing better
agreement on an upper shortwave settling east of or over Hawaii
into early next week, with some locally heavier rainfall possible
across most likely the Big Island and Maui.
Santorelli
+ Additional Links
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 00Z Fri Apr 15 2022
...Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts
of the Northern Plains through Thursday...
...Significant severe weather as well as some flash flooding possible
Wednesday from the Lower Mississippi Valley north to the Midwest...
...Dangerous fire weather conditions for the Southern/Central High
Plains...
...Lower elevation coastal rain and thunderstorms as well as higher
elevation and interior snow continue from the Pacific Northwest to the
Rockies...
A powerful low pressure system moving through the Plains today and the
Midwest on Wednesday continues to produce widespread significant impacts
across the central U.S. including a blizzard, severe weather, flash
flooding, and the risk for wildfires. Snow has already begun to fall to
the northwest of the system across the Northern Plains where record
snowfall and extreme storm impacts are forecast. Storm total snowfall
between 1-2 feet is expected from eastern Montana into western and
northern North Dakota, and locally as high as 2-3 feet. In addition, gusty
winds as high as 50 mph will create blizzard conditions centered across
western and northern North Dakota, where a Blizzard Warning is in effect
through Thursday evening. Travel will be very difficult to impossible and
there is the potential for power outages and tree damage. Significant
impacts to young livestock are also possible. As the system continues to
the northeast, the snow will expand across the Upper Midwest Thursday,
with significant snowfall looking possible for portions of northern
Minnesota as well.
In the warm sector of the system, a widespread, significant severe weather
outbreak is expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley northward through
the Lower Ohio Valley and Midwest. This includes the risk for strong
tornadoes, particularly for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley from
Memphis south to northern Louisiana. Widespread damaging winds are also
likely with lines of storms forming along an eastward moving cold front as
well as large hail. In addition, there is a Slight Risk for heavy rain and
possible flash flooding over the same region as storms both ahead of and
along the cold front will have the potential to produce significant
downpours. Storms along the cold front will also likely pass over areas
that see heavy rain from storms ahead of the front both today and
tomorrow, leading to higher rain totals. To the west, very low humidity
combined with widespread sustained winds of 20-30 mph as the cold front
passes southward have prompted a Critical Risk for fire weather conditions
from the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the Central and Southern
High Plains Wednesday. A lower, but still notable risk will be in place
for Thursday as a lee trough remains in place east of the Rockies.
Meanwhile, snow showers will continue to linger through the end of the
forecast period (Thursday evening) along a meandering stationary front
trailing to the west of the central U.S. system through the
Central/Northern Rockies and into the Pacific Northwest. Rain and
thunderstorms will also continue for lower elevations of the Pacific
Northwest and northern California as a trough of low pressure remains in
place along the coast through Wednesday and another storm system
approaches the region on Thursday.
Temperatures are forecast to remain cool across the western U.S. (15 to 30
degrees below average) through Thursday while warm southerly flow will
transport well above average temperatures into the central and eastern
U.S. ahead of the central U.S. system. High temperatures will range from
the 90s in southern Texas to the 80s from the Southern Plains through the
Southeast and as far north as the Mid-Atlantic.
Putnam/Kebede
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 00Z Fri Apr 15 2022
...Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts
of the Northern Plains through Thursday...
...Significant severe weather as well as some flash flooding possible
Wednesday from the Lower Mississippi Valley north to the Midwest...
...Dangerous fire weather conditions for the Southern/Central High
Plains...
...Lower elevation coastal rain and thunderstorms as well as higher
elevation and interior snow continue from the Pacific Northwest to the
Rockies...
A powerful low pressure system moving through the Plains today and the
Midwest on Wednesday continues to produce widespread significant impacts
across the central U.S. including a blizzard, severe weather, flash
flooding, and the risk for wildfires. Snow has already begun to fall to
the northwest of the system across the Northern Plains where record
snowfall and extreme storm impacts are forecast. Storm total snowfall
between 1-2 feet is expected from eastern Montana into western and
northern North Dakota, and locally as high as 2-3 feet. In addition, gusty
winds as high as 50 mph will create blizzard conditions centered across
western and northern North Dakota, where a Blizzard Warning is in effect
through Thursday evening. Travel will be very difficult to impossible and
there is the potential for power outages and tree damage. Significant
impacts to young livestock are also possible. As the system continues to
the northeast, the snow will expand across the Upper Midwest Thursday,
with significant snowfall looking possible for portions of northern
Minnesota as well.
In the warm sector of the system, a widespread, significant severe weather
outbreak is expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley northward through
the Lower Ohio Valley and Midwest. This includes the risk for strong
tornadoes, particularly for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley from
Memphis south to northern Louisiana. Widespread damaging winds are also
likely with lines of storms forming along an eastward moving cold front as
well as large hail. In addition, there is a Slight Risk for heavy rain and
possible flash flooding over the same region as storms both ahead of and
along the cold front will have the potential to produce significant
downpours. Storms along the cold front will also likely pass over areas
that see heavy rain from storms ahead of the front both today and
tomorrow, leading to higher rain totals. To the west, very low humidity
combined with widespread sustained winds of 20-30 mph as the cold front
passes southward have prompted a Critical Risk for fire weather conditions
from the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the Central and Southern
High Plains Wednesday. A lower, but still notable risk will be in place
for Thursday as a lee trough remains in place east of the Rockies.
Meanwhile, snow showers will continue to linger through the end of the
forecast period (Thursday evening) along a meandering stationary front
trailing to the west of the central U.S. system through the
Central/Northern Rockies and into the Pacific Northwest. Rain and
thunderstorms will also continue for lower elevations of the Pacific
Northwest and northern California as a trough of low pressure remains in
place along the coast through Wednesday and another storm system
approaches the region on Thursday.
Temperatures are forecast to remain cool across the western U.S. (15 to 30
degrees below average) through Thursday while warm southerly flow will
transport well above average temperatures into the central and eastern
U.S. ahead of the central U.S. system. High temperatures will range from
the 90s in southern Texas to the 80s from the Southern Plains through the
Southeast and as far north as the Mid-Atlantic.
Putnam/Kebede
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022
...Overview...
Lower amplitude mean flow aloft should prevail over the lower 48
at least from Friday through the weekend, behind a departing deep
upper low which may take its time drifting across eastern Canada
into next week. Guidance generally shows a shortwave and
associated rain/snow progressing into and through the West during
the weekend then into the Plains/Mississippi Valley by early next
week. By early next week an upper trough reaching the eastern
Pacific early next week may serve to amplify the downstream ridge
crossing the West and trough heading into the East, with the
Pacific trough likely entering the West next Tuesday and bringing
another episode of precipitation to the region. Within what has
been an agreeable forecast of the large scale pattern, persistent
significant detail differences at the surface and aloft keep
confidence lower than desired for coverage and intensity of
precipitation--especially over the eastern half of the country
from Sunday onward but also to some degree over the West.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The first half of the period started with a composite of latest
operational runs. This part of the forecast involved primarily
timing issues, with the GFS beginning to stray a bit faster than
most other guidance for the surface front and supporting dynamics
crossing New England during the weekend and spread/variability
persisting for the system reaching the West by Saturday. The
western system has some degree of complexity, involving potential
interaction of a trough/upper low off the Pacific
Northwest/Vancouver Island and separate shortwave just to the
south. Through the 06Z cycle the GFS was on the faster side of the
spread but the new 12Z UKMET has adjusted closer to the GFS,
leaving the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean a little on the slower side and
the 12Z CMC essentially a compromise. The new 12Z ECMWF has nudged
to a middle ground as well.
By the first part of next week, detail issues with the incoming
western system lead to additional divergence of solutions at the
surface and aloft over the East. The ECMWF through 00Z continued
to be the most consistent model in principle with development of
an embedded closed low along with surface system whose track is
over the mid-latitudes of the East, with its mean and the CMC/CMC
mean favoring similar timing which is slower than the GFS/GEFS
mean. The new 12Z GFS/CMC keep the core of the upper trough
farther north which leads to a much farther north surface low
track than what other guidance had been showing through the
00Z/06Z cycles. The 12Z GEFS mean has adjusted the surface track
at least partially in the 12Z GFS/CMC direction. Meanwhile the new
12Z UKMET becomes a fast extreme with greater strength than
consensus. The 12Z ECMWF has adjusted its upper system northward
somewhat but not to the extent of the GFS/CMC. The upper trough
reaching the West by Tuesday was closer to consensus in the 00Z
GFS versus the faster 06Z run, while the 12Z version has reverted
back to the majority. The new CMC/ECMWF are fairly consistent. The
early-period blend based on 00Z-06Z based guidance transitioned to
a model/mean mix tilted somewhat more toward the ECMWF/ECMWF mean
relative to the GFS/GEFS, with 06Z GFS input switching to the 00Z
run late.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
The departing low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will
likely continue to bring gusty winds into Friday across the
northern tier, resulting in blowing a drifting of snow and
possible hazardous travel conditions in regions that received
heavy snowfall in prior days. This system may also produce some
generally light precipitation across the Great Lakes/Northeast.
Moisture and instability interacting with a warm front lifting
through the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend
and approach of a cold front from the north should bring areas of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall to parts of those areas, but
for now with low confidence in exact placement of heaviest totals.
Farther west, a system forecast to reach the West by Saturday
should focus rain/mountain snow over the central and northern West
Coast into the northern Rockies late this week into the weekend.
Currently the best signal for heaviest totals is from southwest
Oregon into northern California but still with some uncertainty
over exact location and magnitude. Moisture should spread east
beyond the Rockies Sunday onward as low pressure/fronts reach the
central/eastern U.S. At least some precipitation across the
northern tier may be in the form of snow while rainfall
coverage/intensity over the East will depend on currently
uncertain system details. The central Rockies/High Plains could
see a brief period of strong winds around Sunday with system
passage. Expect another episode of precipitation from the Pacific
Northwest/northern California into the northern Rockies early next
week, with some enhanced totals possible over favored
coastal/terrain areas.
The core of below normal temperatures across the northern High
Plains will likely persist into early next week, with daytime
highs generally 20-30F below normal. Locally colder readings
(especially for daytime highs) are possible late this week into
the weekend with some lingering daily records for lows/cold highs
possible mainly on Friday. Over the West, temperatures should
moderate in between systems as a period of upper ridging moves
through. Friday-Saturday will feature chilly readings over the
northern half of the region (minus 10-15F anomalies for highs) and
closer to normal temperatures farther south. As the upper ridge
builds over the region by the start of next week, northern
locations should trend toward normal and southern areas above
normal. The Great Basin and Southwest could see highs as warm as
10-15F above normal. The East should stay near normal this
weekend, but the system potentially reaching the Midwest/East
early next week could draw some of the chilly northern Plains air
southward and eastward behind it, with expanding coverage of minus
10-20F anomalies. The southern Plains will see highs 10-15F above
normal Friday-Sunday followed by a cooling trend.
Rausch/Santorelli
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Fri-Sat, Apr 15-Apr 16.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Mon-Tue, Apr 18-Apr 19.
- Heavy rain across portions of the interior Deep South to the
Southeast, Sun-Mon, Apr 17-Apr 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the New England coast, Tue, Apr 19.
- Flooding possible across portions of the upper Great Lakes to
the northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast
and the mid-Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Red River near the
Canadian border.
- High winds across portions of the central Rockies and into the
central High Plains, Sun, Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest, Fri, Apr 15.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Rockies to the northern High Plains, Fri-Sun, Apr 15-Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Plains, Fri-Tue, Apr 15-Apr 19.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022
...Overview...
Lower amplitude mean flow aloft should prevail over the lower 48
at least from Friday through the weekend, behind a departing deep
upper low which may take its time drifting across eastern Canada
into next week. Guidance generally shows a shortwave and
associated rain/snow progressing into and through the West during
the weekend then into the Plains/Mississippi Valley by early next
week. By early next week an upper trough reaching the eastern
Pacific early next week may serve to amplify the downstream ridge
crossing the West and trough heading into the East, with the
Pacific trough likely entering the West next Tuesday and bringing
another episode of precipitation to the region. Within what has
been an agreeable forecast of the large scale pattern, persistent
significant detail differences at the surface and aloft keep
confidence lower than desired for coverage and intensity of
precipitation--especially over the eastern half of the country
from Sunday onward but also to some degree over the West.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The first half of the period started with a composite of latest
operational runs. This part of the forecast involved primarily
timing issues, with the GFS beginning to stray a bit faster than
most other guidance for the surface front and supporting dynamics
crossing New England during the weekend and spread/variability
persisting for the system reaching the West by Saturday. The
western system has some degree of complexity, involving potential
interaction of a trough/upper low off the Pacific
Northwest/Vancouver Island and separate shortwave just to the
south. Through the 06Z cycle the GFS was on the faster side of the
spread but the new 12Z UKMET has adjusted closer to the GFS,
leaving the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean a little on the slower side and
the 12Z CMC essentially a compromise. The new 12Z ECMWF has nudged
to a middle ground as well.
By the first part of next week, detail issues with the incoming
western system lead to additional divergence of solutions at the
surface and aloft over the East. The ECMWF through 00Z continued
to be the most consistent model in principle with development of
an embedded closed low along with surface system whose track is
over the mid-latitudes of the East, with its mean and the CMC/CMC
mean favoring similar timing which is slower than the GFS/GEFS
mean. The new 12Z GFS/CMC keep the core of the upper trough
farther north which leads to a much farther north surface low
track than what other guidance had been showing through the
00Z/06Z cycles. The 12Z GEFS mean has adjusted the surface track
at least partially in the 12Z GFS/CMC direction. Meanwhile the new
12Z UKMET becomes a fast extreme with greater strength than
consensus. The 12Z ECMWF has adjusted its upper system northward
somewhat but not to the extent of the GFS/CMC. The upper trough
reaching the West by Tuesday was closer to consensus in the 00Z
GFS versus the faster 06Z run, while the 12Z version has reverted
back to the majority. The new CMC/ECMWF are fairly consistent. The
early-period blend based on 00Z-06Z based guidance transitioned to
a model/mean mix tilted somewhat more toward the ECMWF/ECMWF mean
relative to the GFS/GEFS, with 06Z GFS input switching to the 00Z
run late.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
The departing low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will
likely continue to bring gusty winds into Friday across the
northern tier, resulting in blowing a drifting of snow and
possible hazardous travel conditions in regions that received
heavy snowfall in prior days. This system may also produce some
generally light precipitation across the Great Lakes/Northeast.
Moisture and instability interacting with a warm front lifting
through the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend
and approach of a cold front from the north should bring areas of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall to parts of those areas, but
for now with low confidence in exact placement of heaviest totals.
Farther west, a system forecast to reach the West by Saturday
should focus rain/mountain snow over the central and northern West
Coast into the northern Rockies late this week into the weekend.
Currently the best signal for heaviest totals is from southwest
Oregon into northern California but still with some uncertainty
over exact location and magnitude. Moisture should spread east
beyond the Rockies Sunday onward as low pressure/fronts reach the
central/eastern U.S. At least some precipitation across the
northern tier may be in the form of snow while rainfall
coverage/intensity over the East will depend on currently
uncertain system details. The central Rockies/High Plains could
see a brief period of strong winds around Sunday with system
passage. Expect another episode of precipitation from the Pacific
Northwest/northern California into the northern Rockies early next
week, with some enhanced totals possible over favored
coastal/terrain areas.
The core of below normal temperatures across the northern High
Plains will likely persist into early next week, with daytime
highs generally 20-30F below normal. Locally colder readings
(especially for daytime highs) are possible late this week into
the weekend with some lingering daily records for lows/cold highs
possible mainly on Friday. Over the West, temperatures should
moderate in between systems as a period of upper ridging moves
through. Friday-Saturday will feature chilly readings over the
northern half of the region (minus 10-15F anomalies for highs) and
closer to normal temperatures farther south. As the upper ridge
builds over the region by the start of next week, northern
locations should trend toward normal and southern areas above
normal. The Great Basin and Southwest could see highs as warm as
10-15F above normal. The East should stay near normal this
weekend, but the system potentially reaching the Midwest/East
early next week could draw some of the chilly northern Plains air
southward and eastward behind it, with expanding coverage of minus
10-20F anomalies. The southern Plains will see highs 10-15F above
normal Friday-Sunday followed by a cooling trend.
Rausch/Santorelli
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Fri-Sat, Apr 15-Apr 16.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Mon-Tue, Apr 18-Apr 19.
- Heavy rain across portions of the interior Deep South to the
Southeast, Sun-Mon, Apr 17-Apr 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the New England coast, Tue, Apr 19.
- Flooding possible across portions of the upper Great Lakes to
the northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast
and the mid-Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Red River near the
Canadian border.
- High winds across portions of the central Rockies and into the
central High Plains, Sun, Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest, Fri, Apr 15.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Rockies to the northern High Plains, Fri-Sun, Apr 15-Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Plains, Fri-Tue, Apr 15-Apr 19.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 00Z Wed Apr 20 2022
General upper ridging north of Hawaii through the period should
keep easterly trade winds moderate to locally breezy over the next
week. This should result in some light showers favoring the
typical windward locations. A weak front north of Hawaii around
Friday-Saturday may first bring some enhanced moisture and precip
to the northernmost islands. After this, models are showing better
agreement on an upper shortwave settling east of or over Hawaii
into early next week, with some locally heavier rainfall possible
across most likely the Big Island and Maui.
Santorelli
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 00Z 04/16/2022 - 00Z 04/17/2022
Valid 00Z 04/17/2022 - 00Z 04/18/2022
Valid 00Z 04/18/2022 - 00Z 04/19/2022
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Valid 00Z 04/13/2022 - 12Z 04/13/2022
Valid 06Z 04/13/2022 - 18Z 04/13/2022
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022
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Valid 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022
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Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Sat Apr 16 2022
Interactive Page>
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
820 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...Eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
0100 UTC Update -- Only minor changes made to the previous ERO,
based on the latest the latest observational and meso-analysis
trends. Clusters of convection congealing across portions of
central-eastern TX exhibits some upscale growth, and as such the
back edge of the Marginal Risk was pulled westward slightly to
account for these trends. For further details, please refer to the
latest Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion or MPD #109.
Previous discussion...
Only some minor changes made to the previous marginal and slight
risk areas from eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Models remains consistent in showing PW values increasing Tuesday
as low level south southwesterly flow off the western Gulf
strengthens ahead of mid to upper level height falls ejecting
northeast across Texas. This will raise PW values to 1.5 to
1.75"+, 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean from eastern
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Well defined upper
difluence ahead of these height falls will accentuate lift in the
high PW axis supporting heavy precip across these areas. There
continues to be a lot of spread with where the heaviest totals
will occur, resulting in a fairly broad threat regions to capture
these differing solutions. Across the risk areas, there will be
the potential of a period of training of cells in a southwest to
northeasterly direction.
...Northeast Kansas/eastern Nebraska, northeastward through the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the U.P. of Michigan...
0100 UTC Update -- Pulled the eastern flank of the Marginal Risk
area back a little across portions of southern WI and eastern IA
based on the latest guidance trends for the overnight period.
Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the previous ERO.
Previous discussion..
Latest model guidance continues to show good agreement with the
track of the deepening area of low pressure moving from the
Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley later Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Strong frontal convergence and very
favorable upper difluence will support the potential for quickly
forming and organized frontal/pre-frontal convection late Tuesday
afternoon from northeast Kansas/eastern Nebraska, expanding
northeastward through much of Iowa, southeast Minnesota, much of
Wisconsin and into the western U.P. of Michigan Tuesday night.
Simulated radars from the latest hi res guidance continue to
suggest this convection will be fairly progressive to the east
ahead of the strong front moving east northeast across this
region. Still, rainfall rates may be high for a brief period,
resulting in locally heavy rainfall amounts. HREF neighborhood
probabilities are high for 1"+ totals with this area of
frontal/pre-frontal convection, in the 50-80% range, but drop off
significantly for higher totals. With hourly FFG values generally
in the 1-1.5"+ range, isolated runoff issues are possible, with a
marginal risk maintained across these regions.
Hurley/Oravec
Day 1 threat area: Nike Cropped Zip Up Sz S(4-6)
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY, MIDDLE TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY...
21Z Update...
A large swath of precipitation still exists among models covering
areas along the central Gulf Coast northward into the Great Lakes
associated with a strong frontal boundary. Latest QPF shows areas
nearing 1.5-2.5" during the period with hi-res models suggesting
isolated areas near 5" possible. Concerns remain for areas
currently experiencing heavy rainfall during the day 1 period,
especially northwest Tennessee into western Kentucky where FFG
over the past 24 hours has plummeted down to 0.5" or less for some
areas. With the extremely low FFG and more precipitation expected,
a Moderate Risk may end up being hoisted if models hold steady for
the next update.
Chiari
Previous Discussion...
The latest model guidance continue to paint a large rainfall foot
print along and ahead of the strong frontal boundary pushing
eastward through large portions of the Mississippi Valley, Lower
Missouri Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys day 2. The
combination of above average PW values, strong frontal convergence
and very favorable upper difluence along and ahead of this front
will support the widespread heavy precipitation across these
areas. There continues to be a large marginal and slight risk
threat regions depicted for the day 2 time period. The biggest
change to the previous outlook was to expand the slight risk area
westward across much of Illinois and into southeast Missouri.
This was to cover the latest qpf solutions from the models which
show heavy rains developing quickly early day 2 ahead of the
strong front. The expected heavy rains during day 2 will likely
overlap areas of heavy rains that have occurred over the past 24
hours, especially across areas of the Lower Ohio Valley southward
into areas of the Lower Mississippi Valley. In these areas,
stream flows are above average and may warrant an upgrade in later
outlooks.
Oravec
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
21Z Update...
...Far northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and eastern
New York State...
Models have shifted heavier QPF amounts further east during the
period which has prompted the shift of the Marginal Risk area
hoisted this morning. Above average precipitation over the past
week as well as lower FFG will create isolated flash flooding
concerns for the area.
...Florida Panhandle, far southern Alabama, far southeast
Louisiana...
Have pulled the Marginal Risk back a bit based on the latest
guidance. Much of the heavier precipitation has pushed further
into the Gulf with Global guidance showing a sliver pushing into
the Florida Panhandle north into Alabama. QPF amounts for the
period are on the light side, but given antecedent conditions,
isolated flooding is still of concern.
Chiari
Previous Discussion...
...Far northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and eastern
New York State...
The strong cold front moving through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region day 2 will continue to push quickly eastward on day 3
through the northeastern U.S. Much above average PW values are
forecast to continue along and ahead of this front, values
1.00-1.25", 2+ standard deviations above the mean. This will
support potential for a quick moving line of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning into early afternoon across the
northeastern U.S. Rainfall totals have been above average over
the past week from the Mid-Atlantic into eastern New York State,
resulting in high stream flows, as per the National Water Model,
from far northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey into eastern
New York State. While the fast movement of the front will likely
keep precip totals from being very heavy, the recent rains, high
stream flows and lower ffg values, warrant at least a marginal
risk for any localized heavy totals.
...Florida Panhandle, far southern Alabama, far southeast
Louisiana...
The strong fast moving frontal boundary moving through the
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will slow Thursday as it pushes
into the central to eastern Gulf coast/Southeast region. A
marginal risk area is depicted from the Florida Panhandle ,across
far southern Alabama into far southeast Louisiana where model do
depict some heavy rain potential. There are timing differences
with the organized convection that will likely be moving east
southeastward late Wednesday night into early Thursday from the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf coast. This
convection will likely be quick moving at the beginning of the day
3 period, but still have potential for heavy totals. This and
potential for additional showers in vicinity of the slowing front
across this region, warrant a marginal risk across this region.
Oravec
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
+ Additional Links
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
820 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...Eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
0100 UTC Update -- Only minor changes made to the previous ERO,
based on the latest the latest observational and meso-analysis
trends. Clusters of convection congealing across portions of
central-eastern TX exhibits some upscale growth, and as such the
back edge of the Marginal Risk was pulled westward slightly to
account for these trends. For further details, please refer to the
latest Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion or MPD #109.
Previous discussion...
Only some minor changes made to the previous marginal and slight
risk areas from eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Models remains consistent in showing PW values increasing Tuesday
as low level south southwesterly flow off the western Gulf
strengthens ahead of mid to upper level height falls ejecting
northeast across Texas. This will raise PW values to 1.5 to
1.75"+, 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean from eastern
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Well defined upper
difluence ahead of these height falls will accentuate lift in the
high PW axis supporting heavy precip across these areas. There
continues to be a lot of spread with where the heaviest totals
will occur, resulting in a fairly broad threat regions to capture
these differing solutions. Across the risk areas, there will be
the potential of a period of training of cells in a southwest to
northeasterly direction.
...Northeast Kansas/eastern Nebraska, northeastward through the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the U.P. of Michigan...
0100 UTC Update -- Pulled the eastern flank of the Marginal Risk
area back a little across portions of southern WI and eastern IA
based on the latest guidance trends for the overnight period.
Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the previous ERO.
Previous discussion..
Latest model guidance continues to show good agreement with the
track of the deepening area of low pressure moving from the
Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley later Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Strong frontal convergence and very
favorable upper difluence will support the potential for quickly
forming and organized frontal/pre-frontal convection late Tuesday
afternoon from northeast Kansas/eastern Nebraska, expanding
northeastward through much of Iowa, southeast Minnesota, much of
Wisconsin and into the western U.P. of Michigan Tuesday night.
Simulated radars from the latest hi res guidance continue to
suggest this convection will be fairly progressive to the east
ahead of the strong front moving east northeast across this
region. Still, rainfall rates may be high for a brief period,
resulting in locally heavy rainfall amounts. HREF neighborhood
probabilities are high for 1"+ totals with this area of
frontal/pre-frontal convection, in the 50-80% range, but drop off
significantly for higher totals. With hourly FFG values generally
in the 1-1.5"+ range, isolated runoff issues are possible, with a
marginal risk maintained across these regions.
Hurley/Oravec
Day 1 threat area: Nike Cropped Zip Up Sz S(4-6)
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY, MIDDLE TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY...
21Z Update...
A large swath of precipitation still exists among models covering
areas along the central Gulf Coast northward into the Great Lakes
associated with a strong frontal boundary. Latest QPF shows areas
nearing 1.5-2.5" during the period with hi-res models suggesting
isolated areas near 5" possible. Concerns remain for areas
currently experiencing heavy rainfall during the day 1 period,
especially northwest Tennessee into western Kentucky where FFG
over the past 24 hours has plummeted down to 0.5" or less for some
areas. With the extremely low FFG and more precipitation expected,
a Moderate Risk may end up being hoisted if models hold steady for
the next update.
Chiari
Previous Discussion...
The latest model guidance continue to paint a large rainfall foot
print along and ahead of the strong frontal boundary pushing
eastward through large portions of the Mississippi Valley, Lower
Missouri Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys day 2. The
combination of above average PW values, strong frontal convergence
and very favorable upper difluence along and ahead of this front
will support the widespread heavy precipitation across these
areas. There continues to be a large marginal and slight risk
threat regions depicted for the day 2 time period. The biggest
change to the previous outlook was to expand the slight risk area
westward across much of Illinois and into southeast Missouri.
This was to cover the latest qpf solutions from the models which
show heavy rains developing quickly early day 2 ahead of the
strong front. The expected heavy rains during day 2 will likely
overlap areas of heavy rains that have occurred over the past 24
hours, especially across areas of the Lower Ohio Valley southward
into areas of the Lower Mississippi Valley. In these areas,
stream flows are above average and may warrant an upgrade in later
outlooks.
Oravec
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
21Z Update...
...Far northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and eastern
New York State...
Models have shifted heavier QPF amounts further east during the
period which has prompted the shift of the Marginal Risk area
hoisted this morning. Above average precipitation over the past
week as well as lower FFG will create isolated flash flooding
concerns for the area.
...Florida Panhandle, far southern Alabama, far southeast
Louisiana...
Have pulled the Marginal Risk back a bit based on the latest
guidance. Much of the heavier precipitation has pushed further
into the Gulf with Global guidance showing a sliver pushing into
the Florida Panhandle north into Alabama. QPF amounts for the
period are on the light side, but given antecedent conditions,
isolated flooding is still of concern.
Chiari
Previous Discussion...
...Far northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and eastern
New York State...
The strong cold front moving through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region day 2 will continue to push quickly eastward on day 3
through the northeastern U.S. Much above average PW values are
forecast to continue along and ahead of this front, values
1.00-1.25", 2+ standard deviations above the mean. This will
support potential for a quick moving line of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning into early afternoon across the
northeastern U.S. Rainfall totals have been above average over
the past week from the Mid-Atlantic into eastern New York State,
resulting in high stream flows, as per the National Water Model,
from far northeast Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey into eastern
New York State. While the fast movement of the front will likely
keep precip totals from being very heavy, the recent rains, high
stream flows and lower ffg values, warrant at least a marginal
risk for any localized heavy totals.
...Florida Panhandle, far southern Alabama, far southeast
Louisiana...
The strong fast moving frontal boundary moving through the
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will slow Thursday as it pushes
into the central to eastern Gulf coast/Southeast region. A
marginal risk area is depicted from the Florida Panhandle ,across
far southern Alabama into far southeast Louisiana where model do
depict some heavy rain potential. There are timing differences
with the organized convection that will likely be moving east
southeastward late Wednesday night into early Thursday from the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf coast. This
convection will likely be quick moving at the beginning of the day
3 period, but still have potential for heavy totals. This and
potential for additional showers in vicinity of the slowing front
across this region, warrant a marginal risk across this region.
Oravec
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 00Z Sat Apr 16 2022
...Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains...
Days 1-3...
...Significant and potentially historic blizzard continues for
portions of the Northern Plains...
A historically significant, high-impact blizzard will continue
across the northern Plains through Wednesday, producing
record-breaking multi-day snowfall totals for portions of eastern
Montana to central North Dakota. An amplified mid-upper level
disturbance emerging eastward from the northern Rockies will
acquire negative tilt, and this will support a well developed
surface low that will track from eastern Nebraska to Wisconsin
through midday Wednesday. Meanwhile, a rather pronounced trough
axis will extend northwest of this low, with a secondary low
developing near the ND/MN border late Wednesday in combination
with a trowal type feature. Strong low-to-mid level frontogenesis
overlapped by coupled upper jet forcing northwest of the low will
support the development of widespread heavy snow from eastern
Montana to North Dakota.
The latest high-res guidance suite continues to strongly favor
redevelopment of mesoscale snowfall bands through tonight, and
these are resulting in enhanced snowfall rates on the order of
1-2+ inches per hour developing across much of central and western
North Dakota, creating white-out conditions when coupled with the
strong winds. The potential for locally heavy snow will persist
into Wednesday as the upper low continues to deepen and slowly
drift east across the northern Plains. Even with some uncertainty
in the finer mesoscale details, the WPC probabilities indicate
that by late Wednesday, accumulations of a foot or more are
likely, with accumulations over two feet possible from the
southern Montana-North Dakota border northeastward into
north-central North Dakota. In addition to the heavy snow, strong
and gusty winds exceeding 40 mph, supported by a tight pressure
gradient on the northwest side of the low, is expected to produce
widespread blizzard conditions with significant blowing and
drifting snow.
By late Wednesday, the majority of the event should be over for
North Dakota as the main moisture axis lifts northward across
Canada. However, gusty winds and some additional light to
moderate snows are likely to continue into Thursday with
wrap-around moisture remaining in place south of the main surface
low. Across western into north-central North Dakota, storm total
amounts in excess of two feet, with locally heavier amounts
approaching three feet, are possible by the time the event finally
concludes.
...Pacific Northwest...
Days 1-3...
The 12Z model guidance suite continues to indicate another closed
low developing offshore and then moving inland across Oregon and
Washington during the day on Wednesday, with shortwave energy
lingering in place through early Thursday. There will be enough
moisture and deep layer ascent to support periods of organized
moderate to locally heavy snow showers across western Oregon and
northwestern California. Several inches of additional snow
accumulation is likely for the Oregon Cascades, with some of the
highest elevations receiving over a foot of snow by early
Thursday. Given the anomalous 500 mb heights associated with this
pattern and steep lapse rates, snow levels are expected to remain
low with some minor accumulations possible across the valley
locations, with locally heavy amounts possible across the higher
elevations of the coastal ranges. Surface temperatures and
snowfall rates will be the key determining factors regarding
accumulation below 1000 feet, with wetbulb temperatures likely
above freezing near the surface. Northern portions of the Sierra
can also expected some welcomed late season snowfall as the
moisture plume slowly settles southward.
For Days 1-3, the probability of 0.10 inch or more of ice is less
than 10 percent.
Hamrick/Jackson
~~~Key Messages for April 12-14 Blizzard~~~
--A blizzard will continue to impact much of the northern Plains
through Thursday.
--The combination of heavy snow and strong wind gusts will produce
dangerously low visibility with significant blowing and drifting
of snow.
--Travel will be remain difficult to impossible, and widespread
power outages and tree damage are expected. Significant impacts to
livestock are also possible.
--Snowfall is likely to reach record levels in parts of eastern
Montana and western and central North Dakota, with maximum storm
total snowfall of three feet possible.
+ Additional Links
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 00Z Sat Apr 16 2022
...Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains...
Days 1-3...
...Significant and potentially historic blizzard continues for
portions of the Northern Plains...
A historically significant, high-impact blizzard will continue
across the northern Plains through Wednesday, producing
record-breaking multi-day snowfall totals for portions of eastern
Montana to central North Dakota. An amplified mid-upper level
disturbance emerging eastward from the northern Rockies will
acquire negative tilt, and this will support a well developed
surface low that will track from eastern Nebraska to Wisconsin
through midday Wednesday. Meanwhile, a rather pronounced trough
axis will extend northwest of this low, with a secondary low
developing near the ND/MN border late Wednesday in combination
with a trowal type feature. Strong low-to-mid level frontogenesis
overlapped by coupled upper jet forcing northwest of the low will
support the development of widespread heavy snow from eastern
Montana to North Dakota.
The latest high-res guidance suite continues to strongly favor
redevelopment of mesoscale snowfall bands through tonight, and
these are resulting in enhanced snowfall rates on the order of
1-2+ inches per hour developing across much of central and western
North Dakota, creating white-out conditions when coupled with the
strong winds. The potential for locally heavy snow will persist
into Wednesday as the upper low continues to deepen and slowly
drift east across the northern Plains. Even with some uncertainty
in the finer mesoscale details, the WPC probabilities indicate
that by late Wednesday, accumulations of a foot or more are
likely, with accumulations over two feet possible from the
southern Montana-North Dakota border northeastward into
north-central North Dakota. In addition to the heavy snow, strong
and gusty winds exceeding 40 mph, supported by a tight pressure
gradient on the northwest side of the low, is expected to produce
widespread blizzard conditions with significant blowing and
drifting snow.
By late Wednesday, the majority of the event should be over for
North Dakota as the main moisture axis lifts northward across
Canada. However, gusty winds and some additional light to
moderate snows are likely to continue into Thursday with
wrap-around moisture remaining in place south of the main surface
low. Across western into north-central North Dakota, storm total
amounts in excess of two feet, with locally heavier amounts
approaching three feet, are possible by the time the event finally
concludes.
...Pacific Northwest...
Days 1-3...
The 12Z model guidance suite continues to indicate another closed
low developing offshore and then moving inland across Oregon and
Washington during the day on Wednesday, with shortwave energy
lingering in place through early Thursday. There will be enough
moisture and deep layer ascent to support periods of organized
moderate to locally heavy snow showers across western Oregon and
northwestern California. Several inches of additional snow
accumulation is likely for the Oregon Cascades, with some of the
highest elevations receiving over a foot of snow by early
Thursday. Given the anomalous 500 mb heights associated with this
pattern and steep lapse rates, snow levels are expected to remain
low with some minor accumulations possible across the valley
locations, with locally heavy amounts possible across the higher
elevations of the coastal ranges. Surface temperatures and
snowfall rates will be the key determining factors regarding
accumulation below 1000 feet, with wetbulb temperatures likely
above freezing near the surface. Northern portions of the Sierra
can also expected some welcomed late season snowfall as the
moisture plume slowly settles southward.
For Days 1-3, the probability of 0.10 inch or more of ice is less
than 10 percent.
Hamrick/Jackson
~~~Key Messages for April 12-14 Blizzard~~~
--A blizzard will continue to impact much of the northern Plains
through Thursday.
--The combination of heavy snow and strong wind gusts will produce
dangerously low visibility with significant blowing and drifting
of snow.
--Travel will be remain difficult to impossible, and widespread
power outages and tree damage are expected. Significant impacts to
livestock are also possible.
--Snowfall is likely to reach record levels in parts of eastern
Montana and western and central North Dakota, with maximum storm
total snowfall of three feet possible.
- » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
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- » Product Verification
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- » Product Info
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Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15, 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 16, 2022
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 17, 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 18, 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 19, 2022
Image Options:
+ Forecast Discussion
+ Additional Links
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022
...Overview...
Lower amplitude mean flow aloft should prevail over the lower 48
at least from Friday through the weekend, behind a departing deep
upper low which may take its time drifting across eastern Canada
into next week. Guidance generally shows a shortwave and
associated rain/snow progressing into and through the West during
the weekend then into the Plains/Mississippi Valley by early next
week. By early next week an upper trough reaching the eastern
Pacific early next week may serve to amplify the downstream ridge
crossing the West and trough heading into the East, with the
Pacific trough likely entering the West next Tuesday and bringing
another episode of precipitation to the region. Within what has
been an agreeable forecast of the large scale pattern, persistent
significant detail differences at the surface and aloft keep
confidence lower than desired for coverage and intensity of
precipitation--especially over the eastern half of the country
from Sunday onward but also to some degree over the West.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The first half of the period started with a composite of latest
operational runs. This part of the forecast involved primarily
timing issues, with the GFS beginning to stray a bit faster than
most other guidance for the surface front and supporting dynamics
crossing New England during the weekend and spread/variability
persisting for the system reaching the West by Saturday. The
western system has some degree of complexity, involving potential
interaction of a trough/upper low off the Pacific
Northwest/Vancouver Island and separate shortwave just to the
south. Through the 06Z cycle the GFS was on the faster side of the
spread but the new 12Z UKMET has adjusted closer to the GFS,
leaving the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean a little on the slower side and
the 12Z CMC essentially a compromise. The new 12Z ECMWF has nudged
to a middle ground as well.
By the first part of next week, detail issues with the incoming
western system lead to additional divergence of solutions at the
surface and aloft over the East. The ECMWF through 00Z continued
to be the most consistent model in principle with development of
an embedded closed low along with surface system whose track is
over the mid-latitudes of the East, with its mean and the CMC/CMC
mean favoring similar timing which is slower than the GFS/GEFS
mean. The new 12Z GFS/CMC keep the core of the upper trough
farther north which leads to a much farther north surface low
track than what other guidance had been showing through the
00Z/06Z cycles. The 12Z GEFS mean has adjusted the surface track
at least partially in the 12Z GFS/CMC direction. Meanwhile the new
12Z UKMET becomes a fast extreme with greater strength than
consensus. The 12Z ECMWF has adjusted its upper system northward
somewhat but not to the extent of the GFS/CMC. The upper trough
reaching the West by Tuesday was closer to consensus in the 00Z
GFS versus the faster 06Z run, while the 12Z version has reverted
back to the majority. The new CMC/ECMWF are fairly consistent. The
early-period blend based on 00Z-06Z based guidance transitioned to
a model/mean mix tilted somewhat more toward the ECMWF/ECMWF mean
relative to the GFS/GEFS, with 06Z GFS input switching to the 00Z
run late.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
The departing low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will
likely continue to bring gusty winds into Friday across the
northern tier, resulting in blowing a drifting of snow and
possible hazardous travel conditions in regions that received
heavy snowfall in prior days. This system may also produce some
generally light precipitation across the Great Lakes/Northeast.
Moisture and instability interacting with a warm front lifting
through the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend
and approach of a cold front from the north should bring areas of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall to parts of those areas, but
for now with low confidence in exact placement of heaviest totals.
Farther west, a system forecast to reach the West by Saturday
should focus rain/mountain snow over the central and northern West
Coast into the northern Rockies late this week into the weekend.
Currently the best signal for heaviest totals is from southwest
Oregon into northern California but still with some uncertainty
over exact location and magnitude. Moisture should spread east
beyond the Rockies Sunday onward as low pressure/fronts reach the
central/eastern U.S. At least some precipitation across the
northern tier may be in the form of snow while rainfall
coverage/intensity over the East will depend on currently
uncertain system details. The central Rockies/High Plains could
see a brief period of strong winds around Sunday with system
passage. Expect another episode of precipitation from the Pacific
Northwest/northern California into the northern Rockies early next
week, with some enhanced totals possible over favored
coastal/terrain areas.
The core of below normal temperatures across the northern High
Plains will likely persist into early next week, with daytime
highs generally 20-30F below normal. Locally colder readings
(especially for daytime highs) are possible late this week into
the weekend with some lingering daily records for lows/cold highs
possible mainly on Friday. Over the West, temperatures should
moderate in between systems as a period of upper ridging moves
through. Friday-Saturday will feature chilly readings over the
northern half of the region (minus 10-15F anomalies for highs) and
closer to normal temperatures farther south. As the upper ridge
builds over the region by the start of next week, northern
locations should trend toward normal and southern areas above
normal. The Great Basin and Southwest could see highs as warm as
10-15F above normal. The East should stay near normal this
weekend, but the system potentially reaching the Midwest/East
early next week could draw some of the chilly northern Plains air
southward and eastward behind it, with expanding coverage of minus
10-20F anomalies. The southern Plains will see highs 10-15F above
normal Friday-Sunday followed by a cooling trend.
Rausch/Santorelli
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Fri-Sat, Apr 15-Apr 16.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Mon-Tue, Apr 18-Apr 19.
- Heavy rain across portions of the interior Deep South to the
Southeast, Sun-Mon, Apr 17-Apr 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the New England coast, Tue, Apr 19.
- Flooding possible across portions of the upper Great Lakes to
the northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast
and the mid-Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Red River near the
Canadian border.
- High winds across portions of the central Rockies and into the
central High Plains, Sun, Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest, Fri, Apr 15.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Rockies to the northern High Plains, Fri-Sun, Apr 15-Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Plains, Fri-Tue, Apr 15-Apr 19.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022
...Overview...
Lower amplitude mean flow aloft should prevail over the lower 48
at least from Friday through the weekend, behind a departing deep
upper low which may take its time drifting across eastern Canada
into next week. Guidance generally shows a shortwave and
associated rain/snow progressing into and through the West during
the weekend then into the Plains/Mississippi Valley by early next
week. By early next week an upper trough reaching the eastern
Pacific early next week may serve to amplify the downstream ridge
crossing the West and trough heading into the East, with the
Pacific trough likely entering the West next Tuesday and bringing
another episode of precipitation to the region. Within what has
been an agreeable forecast of the large scale pattern, persistent
significant detail differences at the surface and aloft keep
confidence lower than desired for coverage and intensity of
precipitation--especially over the eastern half of the country
from Sunday onward but also to some degree over the West.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The first half of the period started with a composite of latest
operational runs. This part of the forecast involved primarily
timing issues, with the GFS beginning to stray a bit faster than
most other guidance for the surface front and supporting dynamics
crossing New England during the weekend and spread/variability
persisting for the system reaching the West by Saturday. The
western system has some degree of complexity, involving potential
interaction of a trough/upper low off the Pacific
Northwest/Vancouver Island and separate shortwave just to the
south. Through the 06Z cycle the GFS was on the faster side of the
spread but the new 12Z UKMET has adjusted closer to the GFS,
leaving the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean a little on the slower side and
the 12Z CMC essentially a compromise. The new 12Z ECMWF has nudged
to a middle ground as well.
By the first part of next week, detail issues with the incoming
western system lead to additional divergence of solutions at the
surface and aloft over the East. The ECMWF through 00Z continued
to be the most consistent model in principle with development of
an embedded closed low along with surface system whose track is
over the mid-latitudes of the East, with its mean and the CMC/CMC
mean favoring similar timing which is slower than the GFS/GEFS
mean. The new 12Z GFS/CMC keep the core of the upper trough
farther north which leads to a much farther north surface low
track than what other guidance had been showing through the
00Z/06Z cycles. The 12Z GEFS mean has adjusted the surface track
at least partially in the 12Z GFS/CMC direction. Meanwhile the new
12Z UKMET becomes a fast extreme with greater strength than
consensus. The 12Z ECMWF has adjusted its upper system northward
somewhat but not to the extent of the GFS/CMC. The upper trough
reaching the West by Tuesday was closer to consensus in the 00Z
GFS versus the faster 06Z run, while the 12Z version has reverted
back to the majority. The new CMC/ECMWF are fairly consistent. The
early-period blend based on 00Z-06Z based guidance transitioned to
a model/mean mix tilted somewhat more toward the ECMWF/ECMWF mean
relative to the GFS/GEFS, with 06Z GFS input switching to the 00Z
run late.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
The departing low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will
likely continue to bring gusty winds into Friday across the
northern tier, resulting in blowing a drifting of snow and
possible hazardous travel conditions in regions that received
heavy snowfall in prior days. This system may also produce some
generally light precipitation across the Great Lakes/Northeast.
Moisture and instability interacting with a warm front lifting
through the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend
and approach of a cold front from the north should bring areas of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall to parts of those areas, but
for now with low confidence in exact placement of heaviest totals.
Farther west, a system forecast to reach the West by Saturday
should focus rain/mountain snow over the central and northern West
Coast into the northern Rockies late this week into the weekend.
Currently the best signal for heaviest totals is from southwest
Oregon into northern California but still with some uncertainty
over exact location and magnitude. Moisture should spread east
beyond the Rockies Sunday onward as low pressure/fronts reach the
central/eastern U.S. At least some precipitation across the
northern tier may be in the form of snow while rainfall
coverage/intensity over the East will depend on currently
uncertain system details. The central Rockies/High Plains could
see a brief period of strong winds around Sunday with system
passage. Expect another episode of precipitation from the Pacific
Northwest/northern California into the northern Rockies early next
week, with some enhanced totals possible over favored
coastal/terrain areas.
The core of below normal temperatures across the northern High
Plains will likely persist into early next week, with daytime
highs generally 20-30F below normal. Locally colder readings
(especially for daytime highs) are possible late this week into
the weekend with some lingering daily records for lows/cold highs
possible mainly on Friday. Over the West, temperatures should
moderate in between systems as a period of upper ridging moves
through. Friday-Saturday will feature chilly readings over the
northern half of the region (minus 10-15F anomalies for highs) and
closer to normal temperatures farther south. As the upper ridge
builds over the region by the start of next week, northern
locations should trend toward normal and southern areas above
normal. The Great Basin and Southwest could see highs as warm as
10-15F above normal. The East should stay near normal this
weekend, but the system potentially reaching the Midwest/East
early next week could draw some of the chilly northern Plains air
southward and eastward behind it, with expanding coverage of minus
10-20F anomalies. The southern Plains will see highs 10-15F above
normal Friday-Sunday followed by a cooling trend.
Rausch/Santorelli
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Fri-Sat, Apr 15-Apr 16.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of northern California into
southwestern Oregon, Mon-Tue, Apr 18-Apr 19.
- Heavy rain across portions of the interior Deep South to the
Southeast, Sun-Mon, Apr 17-Apr 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the New England coast, Tue, Apr 19.
- Flooding possible across portions of the upper Great Lakes to
the northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast
and the mid-Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Red River near the
Canadian border.
- High winds across portions of the central Rockies and into the
central High Plains, Sun, Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest, Fri, Apr 15.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Rockies to the northern High Plains, Fri-Sun, Apr 15-Apr 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern
Plains, Fri-Tue, Apr 15-Apr 19.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Experimental Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports
Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.
GEFS Probabilities
Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.
Local Storm Reports
Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant information from storm spotters.
Extreme Precipitation Monitor
Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data).
*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.
NDFD Forecast Temperature Records
Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal
Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their respective departures from climatology.
Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts
An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.
Weather in Context Prototype
Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool is available for both CONUS and Alaska.
Prototype Specialized Excessive Rainfall Maps
Interface for specialized WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps for NWS County Warning Areas and States.
Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance
Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that are similar to the upcoming forecast.
National Blend of Models
Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.
Atmospheric River Portal
A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the GEFS.
GEFS Plumes
An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a point.
SPC Forecast Tools
A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
ECMWF Ensemble Mean and Spread
Output from the ECMWF 'Ensemble Prediction System' (ENS) for four parameters: mean sea level pressure, 850 hPa temperature, 850 hPa wind speed, and 500 hPa geopotential height.